India and its Neighborhood- Relations; Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests
News: How Sheikh Hasina’s ouster may impact India-Bangladesh trade ties
India and Bangladesh serve as prime examples of how shifting domestic political landscapes may have both beneficial and detrimental effects on their bilateral relations. Examine.
Bangladesh has been a key ally to India since Sheikh Hasina (Awami League party) came to power in 2009. From eradicating anti-India terrorist groups which operated out of safe havens in Bangladesh to facilitating greater economic, social, and cultural ties, Hasina’s tenure has fostered a healthy relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka.
Beneficial effects under country-friendly politics:
Development:
- Infrastructure and connectivity has been a growing part of India-Bangladesh ties. India has extended three lines of credit to Bangladesh since 2016 amounting to $8 billion for the development of road, rail, shipping and port infrastructure.
- In November 2023, two joint projects – the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port rail line – were inaugurated.
- The Akhaura-Agartala link, which provided an alternate route from mainland India to the Northeast, has cut down the travel time (by train) between Agartala and Kolkata from 31 hours to 10 hours and was expected to boost tourism, trade, and people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.
- In 2023, the countries had agreed to operationalise the agreement for the usage of the Chittagong and Mongla ports to ease the movement of cargo between mainland India and the Northeast.
Internal Security:
- Under Hasina’s reign, both Bangladesh and India are benefactor and beneficiary by assisting rooting-out of extremist and terrorist outfits staying in the land of bangladesh and India could construct development between two countries.
Trading Partner:
- Bangladesh is the biggest export destination for India’s cotton, accounting for 34.9% of India’s total cotton exports (some $2.4 billion in FY24).
- Other major Indian exports to Bangladesh are petroleum products and cereals.
- India’s top import from Bangladesh are readymade garments, amounting to $391 million in FY24. In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a major global hub for textiles.
- In October 2023, India and Bangladesh began discussions on an FTA during a meeting of the Joint Working Group on Trade in Dhaka.
Countering China’s Influence:
- Despite China being Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and also Bangladesh is one of the BRI members of China, the historical rapport between India and Bangladesh under democratic party led to cohesive and balanced relations.
Detrimental effects could be faced under military coup:
Menace of Anti-India terror Outfit:
- In the past, when Opposition parties led by BNP-Jamaat or the Army have ruled the country, India has had an unpleasant experience — with anti-India terror outfits operating across the India-Bangladesh border.
Deteriorating connectivity:
- The recent disruption in Indo-Bangladesh ties could thus restrict India’s access to the Northeast, which will be connected to mainland India only through the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” — only 22 km at its narrowest — between West Bengal and Assam.
External non-state actors:
- China and Pakistan are two bordering countries having grudges on India usually hampers India’s internal security through external assistance of money or weapons for organized crimes and which led to spearheading radicalism.
Pressure from West:
- Under Shaikh Hasina’s reign, the country has been strengthening through economic growth but has also cracked down on the Opposition, media and the civil society. This authoritarian style of functioning faced western countries’ pressure.
- India’s backing of her, despite allegations of rigging in elections, has been a bone of contention between India and the West.
Way Forward:
- Borders Brunt situation: The situation could well arise again, and New Delhi cannot afford to have another front open when the LoC and the border with Pakistan is hot again, and the Indian Army is in a long standoff with the PLA in eastern Ladakh. The Myanmar border is also extremely volatile, and the source of unrest and strife in India’s Northeast.
- Implementation of Gujral Doctrine: Strengthening Act East policy through smooth relations with south and south-east asian nations.
- Strengthening Indo-Pacific region: Recently Vietnam ties also supported the enhancement of India’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region; Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will enhance the Indian and Pacific Ocean rim countries.
Indian foreign policy discourse must recognise that developments in the neighbourhood are not just about Indian resolve, good will or strategy. India’s neighbours have politics of their own and they also have agency of their own in shaping their political destiny at home and the world. India will need enormous strategic patience, faith in the logic of geography, belief in the centrality of commerce, and a strong political commitment to transcend the Partition pathologies in building relations with a changing Bangladesh.